Tag Archives: economics

The awesome power of really big numbers

The press constantly talks about how much the reconciliation plan currently under consideration in congress might cost. Of course, they know what the limit is, since the reconciliation process requires Congress to set one – it’s $3.5 trillion in spending. This is without consideration of the pay-fors, namely tax increases, savings on prescriptions drugs through national purchasing, etc.

More importantly, they characterize this high-end number as impossibly large. In fact, Meghan McCain on Meet The Press even inflated the number by $1.5 trillion, and Chuck Todd (a.k.a. Fuck Wad) didn’t seem to notice. So there’s no upper limit on exaggeration. But WTF – is $3.5 trillion really that much when you’re talking about a ten-year plan?

Lavish military spending

Look at the Defense Authorization Act the House just passed 316-113. It is $768 billion for one year. If you did the same thing with military spending as we routinely do with domestic spending, we would be talking about an 8 trillion-dollar Pentagon budget over the next ten years. That’s probably a conservative estimate, given the fact that the DOD budget increases by something like 7 to 10 percent every year.

So the obvious question for all those budget-conscious legislators questioning the price tag of the reconciliation package is this: why don’t you complain about the much more massive spending on the Pentagon? The answer is obvious. It’s the same thing Eisenhower warned us of back in 1961, as he was preparing to leave office. The military-industrial complex is alive and well.

Various flavors of Keynesianism.

Fiscal stimulus has a long track record in capitalism. Championed by British economist John Maynard Keynes back in the 1930s, the standard story goes that it fell out of favor during the Reagan era. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Reagan spent enormous amounts of money on the U.S. military. It comported with his bellicose rhetoric and policies regarding Cold War international conflicts, but there was more to it than that. Reagan’s unprecedentedly high peacetime military budgets sluiced money into high tech industries. That money made its way into virtually every congressional district in the country.

In short, it was a massive public spending program funded by debt. That model has held steady since those heady days of the 1980s, through Republican and Democratic administrations alike. Biden is no exception. During the 2020 primary campaign, I pointed out the lack of information on his web site about foreign policy. I think that was largely because there would be very little difference.

In any case, the next time someone tells you the reconciliation package is too big, remind them of our OTHER massive spending bills – the ones that blow money on tanks, planes, bombs, etc.

luv u,

jp

Check out our political opinion podcast, Strange Sound.

Making The case for Postal banking.

The end of the eviction moratorium this past week and the response by the Squad says a lot about the limitations of the administrative state. Mass evictions should not be a problem. The large COVID relief package passed last year included something like $40 billion in rental assistance, distributed to the states. As of now, only about $3 billion has been allocated to the people who need the help. That’s maybe 8%.

What the fuck? Why is it that when we go through the ridiculously baroque process of applying federal funds to a problem like this, the money often doesn’t get spent? David Dayen talked about this a bit on the Majority Report on Monday. Put simply, after decades of neoliberal attack on the administrative state, the means of getting government aid to people are sclerotic and dysfunctional.

Loudest voice in the room

There’s a reason why we have such an atomized, ineffective system for helping poor and working people. Ordinary people don’t have armies of lobbyists at their disposal. The eviction moratorium is a good illustration of this. The 7 to 11 million people who were at risk of homelessness as a result of the moratorium’s end are underrepresented. Their landlords, by and large, are anything but.

The difference this time around was that a formerly un-housed person became a member of the House of Representatives. Cory Bush, along with some of her allies, became, in effect, lobbyists for renters. And, amazingly, they were successful. Though I know the thought of it is intensely painful to many armchair leftists on Twitter, we should celebrate this small victory, because it is significant. In so doing, however, we must bear in mind that money still talks very, very loudly.

Why we need postal banking

What do we do about a system that easily transfers billions to corporate bankers but can’t seem to manage rent relief for people in trouble? Well, we need some method for delivering direct payments to Americans in a reliable, low-friction way. In my humble opinion, that method is setting up postal banking.

As many of you may know, postal banking is not a new idea. In fact, the Postal Service offered banking services back when I was a little shaver. The idea I prefer is one that is a bit broader than the old version. My preferred version is this: Every American – and I mean every one – gets a postal banking account. Just like getting a Social Security number, they open an account for you when you are born and you have it all your life. It would be a free, interest bearing account that allows for savings, electronic transfers, etc.

My personal preference would be that the Federal Government deposit some amount, say fifty bucks, as a little birthday gift for every newborn. But whether or not that comes to pass, your postal bank account would serve as the deposit account for any federal benefit payments. Now, if you prefer to use a private bank account, you can always transfer your funds to that bank, even set up auto transfers. But no matter what, that account would be there for you.

Put some bank in the reconciliation bill

I think this is an idea whose time has come. It would make the transfer of that $40 billion in rental assistance dead simple. It would give poor and working people access to banking services. It would, in short, make an enormous difference, and help float our beloved Postal Service as well.

Let’s put it in the reconciliation package, people! Call your reps!

luv u,

jp

Check out our political opinion podcast, Strange Sound.

Subsidizing oligarchy.

At the beginning of this year, Amazon.com founder Jeff Bezos was worth about $100 billion. By May, his fortune had reportedly ballooned to somewhere in the neighborhood of $130 billion. Now it appears to fluctuate between $137 and $160 billion, this last number from CNBC in October. So, it sounds like he won’t be hungry for the holidays. That’s more than can be said about the growing number of structurally unemployed and food-insecure Americans who have fallen through our inadequate and now badly shredded federal safety net.

In need of public assistanceThis Pharaoh-like magnitude of personal wealth reflects a failing economy – more specifically, an economy that fails to serve a large swath of the population. It is about more than personal wealth. Any dude with $137 billion dollars (and there’s only one, so yes, it’s a dude) possesses $136 billion more than he could ever hope to spend on himself.  The accumulation of untold billions is all about power – the power to affect the lives of millions on a whim, whether for good or ill. When Bill Gates sank a billion dollars of his fortune into distorting our educational system (and helping to undermine public sector unions in the process), he didn’t do it because we asked for his intervention. He did it because he wanted to, and because he thought his wealth gave him license. He was right … but only because we as a people have not taken steps to constrain that license.

And yet, with all of their wealth and power, the billionaires still ask for public assistance. Worse, they encourage people to jump up and down like children, competing for the rare privilege of giving them more money. The obvious example is Amazon’s HQ2 bidding process, which recently concluded with a split decision between New York City and northern Virginia, outside of DC. The cost to taxpayers in both areas will be at least $4.6 billion in tax subsidies, not counting the substantial incentives laid out through provisions of the recent GOP tax giveaway. (See David Dayen and Rachel Cohen’s piece in The Intercept for details.) Okay, $4.6 billion is lunch money to Jeff Bezos. Instead of asking underserved  communities to fork over public resources, why doesn’t he just use a small part of his $136 billion personal surplus to build his dumb-ass second headquarters and pay goddamn taxes like a normal human being?

Why? Because this isn’t about money. It’s about power, and perpetuating the cult of privilege that has been built around oligarchs like Bezos and Gates and the Mercers and the Kochs and Trump.  It’s up to us to pull this edifice down before it gets too big to demolish.

luv u,

jp

Chance, not skill.

This week saw stories about campus uprisings (some successful) relating indirectly to the Black Lives Matter movement and yet another Republican debate about practically nothing. These seemingly distinct phenomena are not entirely unconnected, particularly when you consider the economic focus of the G.O.P. debate and the very racially exclusive history of the expansion of the middle class during the second half of the 20th Century.

Living in my hermetically sealed white man’s world, I am witness to a lot of head scratching about why students at, say, University of Missouri are so upset. Of course, all my white companions know of this is what they hear on the evening news or via online sources, which only brings them the events of the past few days. The long history of abuse, exclusion, marginalization, incarceration, injury, and in some cases killing is not encapsulated in these very brief reports. So naturally, it seems nonsensical.

60s suburbia: green grass, red lines.My life isn’t exactly typical, but my family experience offers some insight into the depth of white privilege. My dad came back from World War II, got his high school equivalency diploma, and went to work. He was white, so it wasn’t that challenging to find a job in those days. He had V.A. and F.H.A. loans, barred to black families, with which to purchase his first, second, third house and so on. By the late sixties / early seventies, we were living in a new house in the richest town in our county, with one son on the way to Oberlin College, all on one salary. Dad’s financial profile more or less tracked the trajectory of the American white working class, declining somewhat through the seventies, eighties, and nineties, but he left enough to fund an IRA and, with Social Security, set my mom up for the rest of her life. Black families, by and large, didn’t have any of that – not the jobs, not the equity, not the access to credit, an not the freedom to live wherever they wanted.

What’s more, because my parents benefited from that brief period of somewhat broadly shared white prosperity in the 50s, 60s, and 70s, they were there to catch me and my siblings when we faltered. I had the luxury of being able to fail once, twice, many times, always having that safety net below me. Again, black people my age didn’t have that, because their parents hadn’t shared in the prosperity. So when people like Ben Carson, Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, etc., tell this tale about pulling yourself up by the bootstraps, they’re talking out of their asses.

The truth is, the American economy is a game of chance, not of skill. Not everyone can grow up to be an entrepreneur or a famous neurosurgeon, and they shouldn’t have to in order to have a decent life. And though we live under these lofty-sounding delusions about self-reliance and persistence, people no longer have the luxury of failure. Black people never had it, and now white people are reaching that threshold as well.

We need to fundamentally change the way we do things if we’re ever going to achieve racial or economic justice. This is probably a good time to start.

God awful. So sorry to hear about the bloody attacks in Beirut and Paris. My condolences to the families of the fallen.

luv u,

jp

Debtors and lenders.

We’re watching as the richest country in Europe (a.k.a. Germany) is pressuring one of the poorest countries in Europe (a.k.a. Greece) to accept an even deeper regime of austerity than what they have endured up to now, with massive unemployment, economic contraction, and increasing (not decreasing) debt. This is a political effort, not an economic one. Economically it makes no sense; crushing the Greek economy will only harm the Eurozone. The German chancellor is playing to a domestic constituency convinced that Greeks deserve more punishment because they are bad, lazy, corrupt, etc. That’s a deeply nationalist attitude, and I don’t know about you, but German nationalism makes me a little nervous.

Guess which evildoer the Greeks are equating with the GermansThe irony, of course, is astounding. When it faced crisis in the early 1950s, Germany’s creditors – including Greece – agreed to write off 50% of its debt and postpone the other half, allowing Germany to pay it back on a 30-year schedule. Pretty decent terms, considering how Germany acquired much of its debt … namely destroying an entire continent, killing millions, and brutally occupying much of Europe – again, including Greece. Ancient history? Only to American news outlets like NPR’s Morning Edition, where this week correspondents snickered about how Greeks see one German official as a kind of “Darth Vader” figure. (Note to NPR: does Darth Vader’s helmet remind you of anything? Is it possible the Greeks are equating the Germans more with – I don’t know – the murderous German occupiers of the 1940s than with the cartoonish pop-culture Nazi knock-off from Star freaking Wars?)

Then there’s Puerto Rico. Another debt crisis, with no sign of assistance forthcoming from its overlords in Washington. The back story on this is instructive. Puerto Rico has very little room to maneuver economically. It doesn’t control its own shipping. Goods shipped to the island from any nation must first make for Florida and be transferred to American ships before they can be unloaded in Puerto Rico. Just listen to this interview of Nelson Denis on Sam Seder’s Majority Report podcast for the full story of how this island has been screwed by the U.S. again and again. Though it sounds depressingly familiar, I had not heard this history before.

There’s such a thing as odious debt. We just need to recognize that fact and allow countries that have been skull-fucked by us and our allies to start with a clean slate.

luv u,

jp

Bringing it back home.

What do you mean the broken-down car has broken down? How much more of a heap could it possibly be? Okay, okay … we’ll call the hook. No, not CAPTAIN Hook. Unless he’s opened a towing business in his dotage. Seems unlikely.

Our audience is a little hard to reachWell, as you can see, the bottom is falling out of Big Green, economically speaking. Nothing new, right? As a class, musicians tend to be monetarily challenged, let’s say. Doing music for a living is tantamount to perpetual unemployment, interrupted by occasional contract work. And when you’re a plainclothes band, the gig money sucks. Usually you get a percentage of the door. If you’re more well known, they might give you the WHOLE door. And if you draw a good crowd, they might even throw in a window as well.

Now, when you play mostly original music, like we do, that’s an even bigger problem. Nobody knows the songs, for one thing … when you’re not famous, that is. Even worse, the audience starts requesting songs by the Scorps, or Stairway to Heaven, or maybe Beethoven’s Ninth. (That last one is hard to pull off with a four-piece rock group. Especially the vocals!) Before you know it, you’re walking out of that dump with your tail between your legs, your pride in the toilet, and your self-respect on a slow boat to Madagascar. You’ve been there – don’t deny it!

Now, we’ve tried to adapt to this harsh reality. Playing for plants and trees. Booking jobs in outer space. (Once you’ve solved the transportation problems, it’s easier than it sounds.) Making sandwiches instead of music (it CAN be done). But there’s only so much you can do to alleviate the pain of independent music. Nobody knows the trouble we’ve seen. Nobody know but … I don’t know … Weezer? Cue the violins.

Okay, enough about me. Let’s talk technique here. Unlike a lot of interstellar circuit groups, we play our instruments with hands. Not pseudopods. Not antennae. Not mind waves. That makes us more of a curiosity in venues on Neptune. That helps the door take a little. So … keep playing Neptune, right?

By another name.

Cleveland’s police department has been issued a lengthy set of restrictions by the Justice Department in response to a pattern of systemic abuses and unconstitutional practices, according to the 110-page DOJ report. We know about some of the most egregious recent racially charged cases, such as the massive police chase after and killing of a black couple whose car backfired (which recently ended in acquittal of one officer), the killing of Tanisha Anderson, as well as the Tamir Rice case – one of the most heinous examples of police brutality in recent memory. Cleveland’s mayor has signed on to sweeping changes for the department, which may be a step in the right direction.

We're ALL on the hook for this outrage.This is, however, an issue that isn’t going to be solved through police reform. Yes, dialing back police tactics is a necessary component, but it is just one element in a far more complex picture. Black Americans have been treated like shit since emancipation (prior to that as well, of course). Black life has been criminalized nine ways from Friday, starting with the virtual enslavement of African Americans in the post-reconstruction era (as chronicled by Douglas Blackmon in Slavery By Another Name) through their continuing persecution in the modern era (see Michelle Alexander’s The New Jim Crow). Couple that with the kinds of exclusionary practices in housing policy and employment that Richard Rothstein at the Economic Policy Institute writes about, and you will get a sense of how we’ve gotten to this place.

We need to face the fact that we have a deeply racist history as a nation – one that far outlasted slavery. It is a central theme of the American story, pervading every aspect of Black life, from the homes they live in to the jobs they are able to get to their ability to stay on the right side of the law. After decades and decades of regressive policies that restricted black families to some of the poorest areas in the country, kept them from prosperity, and subjected them to aggressive policing, we need to do more than tinker around the edges.

This is the civil rights challenge of our time. Confining reform to police departments is like blaming teachers for disadvantaged young people’s inability to succeed in school. We need to make bolder moves, and we need to start now.

luv u,

jp

Austerity rules.

Just a few things I want to comment on this week, not at any great length. Bear with me, please.

Human Rights. In what appeared to be an effort to elicit Vietnam’s cooperation in the looming Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) “free trade agreement” – really an investors’ rights agreement – Secretary of State John Kerry recently paid a visit to Hanoi to discuss new maritime security cooperation measures, against the backdrop of China’s recent declaration of a kind of demilitarized zone in the South China Sea. None of this is surprising, but what kind of made my jaw hang open was the reporting around the visit. The main hook was that Kerry had been part of America’s expeditionary force in South Vietnam during the war, and he toured some of his old haunts in the south. NPR (not to single them out – everyone else did this, too), practically in a single breath, made reference to this trip down memory lane, then referred to problems with Vietnam’s human rights record, which Washington complains about.

Kerry greets a survivor.Really? Just a little bit of context might be nice. What was Kerry doing there in the 1960s again? Vacationing? No. Oh, that’s right – he was part of a massive invasion force that was grinding Vietnam – particularly southern Vietnam – to a bloody pulp, leaving probably 2 million dead and three countries destroyed; a massive crime that we have never been held accountable for. I think it’s a little premature to lecture Hanoi on human rights, frankly.

Work release. The Fed will be dialing back their “quantitative easing” policy in the coming year. I have mixed feelings about this, frankly. The central bank has been the only organ of American power – public or private – seemingly willing to invest in this economy. Much of that investment has been in vain, as the banks the Fed lends to have been extremely reluctant to lend that money out. Corporations are sitting on their money, not hiring at any great clip. And of course, at every level of government, it’s cut, cut, cut; thousands of public sector jobs eliminated. Austerity rules, once again.

I have this nagging feeling that American capital is unwilling to invest in American workers – that they feel it’s a bad risk, and so they seek richer pastures elsewhere, where workers rights are even less protected the meager safeguards we enjoy here. What we need is some public investment entity to pick up the slack. We need to commit ourselves to full employment – if someone is willing and able to work, and the private sector has nothing to offer them, let the government provide them with work. They, in turn, will spend that money in their local economy, supporting private sector jobs and growth. At the same time we need to stop incentivizing corporate off-shoring of jobs (see the TPP, above).

Austerity isn’t inevitable. It’s a choice, a bad one, and we have to reject it if we want a better life.

luv u,

jp